携帯電話の電波エリアの拡大が農家の市場参加及び移動労働に与える影響: ウガンダのパネルデータより

公共政策プログラム / Public Policy Program政策研究大学院大学 / National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies論文審査委員: 山野 峰（主査）, 大塚 啓二郎, 福島 隆司, 澤田 康幸（東京大学）, 木島 陽子（筑波大学

Impacts of Climate Change upon Asian Coastal Areas: The case of Metro Manila

JICA Research InstituteClimate models supporting the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report predict that climate change willincrease local temperatures and precipitation in monsoon regions in Asia, where the number of largecities is increasing and existing urban areas are expanding, particularly along the coasts. In this study,Metro Manila, typical of Asian coastal megacities, is used as a case study to comprehensivelysimulate impacts of future climate change and identify necessary adaptation measures.In spite of the various uncertainties inherent in predictions, this study translates future global climatescenarios to regional climate scenarios, a process called “downscaling”. The B1 and A1FI scenariosof the IPCC SRES framework provide a basis for discussing local temperature and precipitationchanges in Metro Manila. Based on these scenarios, hydrological conditions such as river overflowand storm surge were projected. Flood simulation maps were then constructed showing the range ofpotential spatial spreads, inundation depths and flooding durations anticipated in the metropolis.Based on the flood simulation maps, socio-economic impact analyses were applied to understand thecharacteristics and magnitude of flood damage anticipated in the year 2050. The benefit side of theanalysis calculated avoided damage at the aggregate level. Tangible direct losses were assessed as inconventional flood control project analyses. Incremental costs to transportation (VOC and timecosts), and lost wages and income (sales) due to flooding were combined for tangible indirect costs.Note that the simulated flood maps and impacts are some cases among a wide range of futurepossibilities resulting from a “cascade of uncertainties” inherent in the various steps of themethodology.If flood control infrastructure improvements were stopped now, and the A1FI climate scenario isassumed, a 100-year return period flood could cause aggregate damages of up to 24% of the GRDP,while damages from a 30-year return period flood would be about 15% of the GRDP. If, however,infrastructure improvement based on the 1990 Master Plan is continued and climate scenario B1 isassumed, the projected damages would be only 9% of the GRDP for a 100-year return period flood,and 3% for a 30-year return period flood.Finally, options for adapting to the scenarios were selected, with the objective of eliminating asmuch as possible of the flooding projected in the flood simulations. Economic evaluations usingeconomic internal rate of return (EIRR) and net present value (NPV) were conducted by combiningthe costs of the adaptation options with the damages avoided by implementing those options. TheEIRR and NPV evaluations yielded different results, but they both suggest that filling theinfrastructure gap identified under the current Master Plan (for status quo climate) is the first andforemost priority

Spatial networks, labor supply, and income dynamics: Evidence from Indonesian villages

"This paper uses household panel and village census data from Indonesia to examine the impact of spatial connectivity (road) development on household income growth and nonagricultural labor supply. The empirical results show that the impacts of improvements in local road quality (which positively correlate with transportation speed) on income growth and the transition to nonagricultural labor markets depend on the distance to economic centers and the household education level. In particular, postprimary education significantly increases the benefit from local spatial connectivity improvement in remote areas and promotes labor transition to nonagricultural sectors. Education and local road quality are complementary, mutually increasing income growth and nonagricultural labor income in remote areas. The gain from improvements in local connectivity (measured by average road quality) depends on village remoteness and initial household-level endowments." from authors' abstractincome growth, Spatial connectivity, Rural economy, Education, Social protection, Human capital,

A Search for ϕ\phi Meson Nucleus Bound State Using Antiproton Annihilation on Nucleus

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Urban–rural and rural–urban transmission mechanisms in Indonesia in the crisis

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The impacts of mobile phone coverage expansion and personal networks on migration: evidence from Uganda

Personal networks can help rural workers find urban jobs. Moreover, when the information flow increases due to the mobile phone coverage expansion, the new information flow may strengthen the existing personal networks or bypass them, helping those who were previously outside the networks in the latter case. We examine the combined impact of mobile phone coverage expansion and personal networks by using panel data of 856 households in 94 communities in rural Uganda, where the number of communities covered by mobile phone coverage increased from 41 to 87 communities over a two-year period between first and second surveys in 2003 and 2005, respectively. We first find that, when the household head’s ethnicity belongs to a larger ethnic group in Kampala, an individual’s chance of leaving his or her rural village to find a job increases while controlling for the distance from Kampala and other variables. The mobile phone network expansion increases the chance of choosing migration to find a job, and this impact is larger for individuals who belong to a larger ethnic group in Kampala. These findings suggest that mobile phone coverage strengthens the existing majority ethnic network with regard to the decision to migrate to find a job

The Impact of Mobile Phone Coverage Expansion on Market Participation: Panel Data Evidence from Uganda

Summary An increased information flow due to mobile phone network expansions is expected to reduce marketing costs of agricultural commodities. We investigate this using panel data of 856 Ugandan households in 94 communities, where the number of communities covered by mobile phone networks increased from 41 to 87 between surveys in 2003 and 2005, respectively. After the expansion of coverage, we find increased sales of banana in remote communities but not of maize. The mobile phone coverage expansion seems to induce the market participation of farmers in remote areas who produce perishable crops.information technology marketing panel data Uganda Africa